A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
