Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
